Military empowerment and civilian targeting in civil war

Civilians constitute a large share of casualties in civil wars across the world. They are targeted to create fear and punish allegiance with the enemy. This maximizes collaboration with the perpetrator and strengthens the support network necessary to consolidate control over contested regions. I develop a model of the magnitude and structure of civilian killings in civil wars involving two armed groups who �ght over territorial control. Armies secure compliance through a combination of carrots and sticks. In turn, civilians di¤er from each other in their intrinsic preference towards one group. I explore the e¤ect of the empowerment of one of the groups in the civilian death toll. There are two e¤ects that go in opposite directions. While a direct e¤ect makes the powerful group more lethal, there is an indirect e¤ect by which the number of civilians who align with that group increases, leaving less enemy supporters to kill. I study the conditions under which there is one dominant e¤ect and illustrate the predictions using sub-national longitudinal data for Colombia's civil war.

Rebellion, repression and welfare

I develop a dynamic model of social conflict whereby manifest grievances of the poor generate the incentive of taking over political power violently. Rebellion can be an equilibrium outcome depending on the level of preexisting inequality between the poor and the ruling elite, the relative military capabilities of the two groups and the destructiveness of conflict. Once a technology of repression is introduced, widespread fear reduces the parameter space for which rebellion is an equilibrium outcome. However, I show that repression{driven peace comes at a cost as it produces a welfare loss to society.Rebellion, Repression, Inequality, Markov Perfect Equilibrium

Earthen construction: structural vulnerabilities and retrofit solutions for seismic actions

Earthen structures present very appealing characteristics regarding a more sustainable practice with the preservation of our natural resources. However, when subjected to earthquake ground motions, this type of construction may present a deficient performance, which may cause significant human losses and important structural damage. The seismic response of earthen structures is typically characterized by fragile failures. There are several examples of recent earthquakes that affected earthen buildings in a severe way, evidencing the vulnerability of this type of construction, like the El Salvador earthquake, in 2001, the Bam, Iran earthquake, in 2003, the Pisco, Peru earthquake, in 2007 and the Maule, Chile earthquake, in 2010. The construction of earth structures on earthquake-prone areas must be carefully studied and should include seismic reinforcement solutions in order to improve their seismic performance. In this paper, the performance of earthen structures in recent earthquakes will be examined, analyzing failure modes inherent to these particular construction materials and associated construction techniques. Also, seismic reinforcement approaches and techniques will be presented in a comprehensive manner. Examples of tests conducted for the assessment of retrofitting solutions efficiency will be presented, and the results obtained will be discussed

Are All Resources Cursed? Coffee, Oil and Armed Confict in Colombia

The Resource Curse" posits a positive association between the value of natural commodities and civil conflict. In this paper, we suggest that the value-to-violence relationship differs across commodities, and that the factor intensity of production determines whether a rise in the price of a legally traded good will exacerbate conflict. We exploit exogenous price shocks for coffee and oil to test this hypothesis, using data on politically-motivated violence in Colombia over 1988 to 2004. We find that a drop in coffee prices during the 1990s led to a disproportionate rise in conflict in the coffee areas. Poverty dynamics follow a similar pattern, while substitution into drug crops do not, which suggests that it is the fall in income rather than the drug trade that fuelled this effect. In contrast, we find that oil prices are positively related to clashes with government forces, and that state revenue is used to strengthen military presence in oil areas. Our results suggest that the income channel is critical in determining how price shocks to labor-intensive commodities affect insurgency. However, for capital-intensive goods, the revenue effect predominates in mediating how the value of the commodity affects violence."Colombia, Civil War, Resource Curse, Difference in Differences

Does the unemployment benefit institution affect the productivity of workers? Evidence from a field experiment

We investigate whether and how the type of unemployment benefit institution affects productivity. We designed a field experiment to compare workers' productivity under a welfare system, where the unemployed receive an unconditional monetary transfer, with their productivity under a workfare system, where the transfer is received conditional on the unemployed spending some time on ancillary activities. First, we find that having an unemployment benefit institution, regardless of whether it makes transfers conditional or unconditional, increases workers' productivity. Second, we find that productivity is higher under Welfare than under Workfare. Becoming unemployed under Welfare comes at the psychological cost of a drop in self-esteem, presumably due to the shame or stigma associated with receiving an unconditional unemployment benefit. We document the empirical relevance of precisely this channel. The differences we observe in productivity suggest that this psychological cost acts as an extra nonmonetary incentive for workers under Welfare to put a higher effort in their work

Violence and growth in colombia: a review of the quantitative literature

ABSTRACTThis is a critical review of the empirical literature on the relationship between violence and economic growth in Colombia: an interesting case study for social scientists studying violence, conflict, crime and development. We argue that, despite the rapid development of this literature and the increasing use of new techniques, there is still much room for research. After assessing the contribution of the most influential papers on the subject, we suggest directions for future research.Colombia, Violence, Economic Growth

Combatant recruitment and the outcome of war

Why do some civil wars terminate soon, with victory of one party over theother? What determines if the winner is the incumbent or the rebel group?Why do other conflicts last longer? We propose a simple model in whichthe power of each armed group depends on the number of combatants itis able to recruit. This is in turn a function of the relative 'distance' between group leaderships and potential recruits. We emphasize the moralhazard problem of recruitment: fighting is costly and risky so combatantshave the incentive to defect from their task. They can also desert alto-gether and join the enemy. This incentive is stronger the farther away thefighter is from the principal, since monitoring becomes increasingly costly.Bigger armies have more power but less monitoring capacity to preventdefection and desertion. This general framework allows a variety of interpretations of what type of proximity matters for building strong cohesivearmies ranging from ethnic distance to geographic dispersion. Di¤erentassumptions about the distribution of potential fighters along the relevantdimension of conflict lead to di¤erent equilibria. We characterize these,discuss the implied outcome in terms of who wins the war, and illustratewith historical and contemporaneous case studies.

Semantic web-based document: editing and browsing in AktiveDoc

This paper presents a tool for supporting sharing and reuse of knowledge in document creation (writing) and use (reading). Semantic Web technologies are used to support the production of ontology based annotations while the document is written. Free text annotations (comments) can be added to integrate the knowledge in the document. In addition the tool uses external services (e.g. a Semantic Web harvester) to propose relevant content to writing user, enabling easy knowledge reuse. Similar facilities are provided for readers when their task does not coincide with the author’s one. The tool is specifically designed for Knowledge Management in organisations. In this paper we present and discuss how Semantic Web technologies are designed and integrated in the system